Data recently published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (“C3S”), an observation programme of the European Union, has shown that June 2024 marked both the 12th consecutive month in which global-average surface air temperatures were 1.64°C hotter than during the pre-industrial era (1850-1900) and the 13th consecutive month wherein the respective monthly temperature has been the hottest on record. This data has also shown that June 2024 was the hottest June ever recorded – with a global-average surface air temperature of 16.66°C – 0.14°C hotter than June 2023, the previous recordholder. A similar monthly streak of record temperatures was observed in 2015-2016, however the C3S Director, Carlo Buontempo, remarked that:

“This is more than a statistical oddity and it highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate. Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. This is inevitable, unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans.”

The trend is concerning, because these hotter worldwide temperatures have already impacted vulnerable aspects of the environment. For instance, another C3S dataset has shown that Antarctic sea ice coverage was 12% below average in June 2024 – the second-lowest extent for June in the satellite data record. Moreover, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) similarly estimated in its special report, with high confidence, that global-average surface air temperatures over 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial levels would cause coral reefs to decline by 70-90%. It also estimated, with very high confidence, that temperatures over 2°C hotter than those same levels would cause them to decline by over 99%.

Additionally, the C3S has published hydrological variables data showing a divergence in global rainfall. June 2024 was wetter than average in central and southwestern Europe; southwestern and southeastern Asia; North America; southwestern Australia; and southeastern Africa. This has resulted in severe flooding in Germany, Italy, France, Switzerland and Guangdong Province, China, as well as Tropical Storm Alberto and Hurricane Beryl (Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Conversely, June 2024 was drier than average in most of northwestern and eastern Europe; northeastern Asia; and South America – resulting in wildfires in Turkey, the Sakha Republic and the Pantanal wetlands (the largest tropical wetland on the planet).

As reported by the Guardian, global warming for the purposes of the Paris Agreement is calculated with decadal averages. So, Parties thereto are not currently in breach of the aim, under Art 2(1)(a), to:

“[hold] the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and [pursue] efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”

Nevertheless, urgent action is required from policymakers in order to remedy the climate crisis and prevent future environmental harm. As warned by the IPCC, “there is no single ‘1.5°C warmer world’…” and the effects of climate change will likely vary depending on whether global-average surface air temperatures rise above then fall below 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, before 2100, or whether they are consistently kept below that threshold until the turn of the century. The danger of inaction is that some ecosystems – such as aquaculture and fisheries – may suffer irreversible losses in the meantime.

©Lawrence Power 2024