A study by Washington State University, (“WSU”), has found that the US is unlikely to realise its 2030 target for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, (“SAF”). Even under an optimistic assessment, the US is likely to produce 2.1 billion gallons of SAF, which falls short of the federal goal of 3 billion gallons per year by 2030. The domestic production is expanding, but will nevertheless be insufficient to meet the target without additional support and investment.

SAF facilitates the reduction of carbon emissions in the aviation industry. Although planes using SAF will burn an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide compared to those using normal jet fuel, the net carbon emission is lower in the former by virtue of SAF’s production process. Depending on the method of production, SAF has the capacity to reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by around 80 per cent. The most prominent form of SAF, as per the study, is Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (“HEFA”), which are produced from oils and greases, such as cooking oil.

Unlike cars, which can be electrified, long-haul commercial flights cannot adopt such technology due to additional costs and/or technological incapacity. SAF is currently the most suitable means to reduce emissions since it requires minimal additional infrastructure. SAF can be blended with normal jet fuel.

The WSU-led study reviewed the relevant publicly announced projects in the US. One of the primary hurdles highlighted by the study is the non-implementation of projects; projects are announced, but not always carried out. To this effect, the study discusses the ‘implementation ratio’ to evaluate the ratio of projects which are announced versus those that are actually realised. Only about half of the announcements have led to operational facilities until now.

There are various reasons behind this announcement and implementation gap. One reason is the shortage of raw material to produce HEFA, i.e. used cooking oil. The demand for cooking oil has surpassed the present supply. A second connected reason is the commercial viability of SAF. Even if cooking oil is available to produce SAF, it might be more economical and commercially attractive for producers to use it to produce renewable diesel for cars, which is more profitable in light of the US policies and the current market given the Middle East conflict.

In the UK, the SAF target was missed in 2025. The mandatory target was for SAF to account for 2 per cent of the aviation fuel supply, but only 1.6 per cent was actually SAF. Although these figures are provisional, as per the Department for Transport. The target is 10 per cent by 2030 which now looks highly optimistic unless government action is taken.

© Lawrence Power 2026

Sources:

[1] Study Finds SAF Could Fall Short of 2030 Target (26 May 2026, AVWeb) <https://avweb.com/ownership/fuel-news/study-finds-saf-short-of-targets/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io&utm_campaign=newsletter>

[2] What’s the Future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel? Here’s a Realistic Look… (27 May 2026, Michigan Farm News) <https://www.michiganfarmnews.com/what-s-the-future-of-sustainable-aviation-fuel-here-s-a-realistic-look->

[3] Sustainable Aviation Fuel Likely to Miss 2030 US Target (27 May 2026, Earth.com) <https://www.earth.com/news/sustainable-aviation-fuel-likely-to-miss-2030-u-s-target/>

[4] WSU Study Offers Realistic Look at the Future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (26 May 2026, WSU Insider) <https://news.wsu.edu/press-release/2026/05/26/wsu-study-offers-realistic-look-at-the-future-of-sustainable-aviation-fuel/>

[5] Sustainable Aviation Fuel Take-up in UK Unlikely to Hit 2025 Target, Data Suggests (26 December 2025, The Guardian) <https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/26/sustainable-aviation-fuel-mandate-uk-government-data-2025?CMP=share_btn_url>

[6] Pragmatic Assessment of Meeting the 2030 US Sustainable Aviation Fuel Goal (Biomass and Bioenergy 2026) <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2025.108516>